Putin’s War: The Daily Ukraine Brief --- March 4th - 24hr to 3pm
There was no substack update yesterday. A map of the situation yesterday at 3pm can be found here.
Click here for a high-resolution map.
*Disclaimer: This map and the information below is informed by reliable and verified open sources, it is meant to convey the general disposition of Russian troops in Ukraine and should not be considered confirmed nor comprehensive. Importantly, do not use this map to plan evacuation routes through Ukraine.
Events of interest:
1. This morning there was the second significant attack on the city of Mykolaiv. After a failed airborne assault earlier in the week, Russian troops from Crimea/Kherson approached the city from the South, reaching satellite towns on the Southern outskirts of Mykolaiv. These advances are still around 15km from downtown Mykolaiv but represent a significant attempt by Russian forces to take control of further territory in the south of Ukraine, where they appear to be facing fewer logistical issues than plague them in the north. Additionally, Russian units were reported from the city of Mykolaiv itself, these are likely largely unsupported special-forces or saboteur units, similar to what we have seen in Kyiv and Kharkiv, that are looking to distract units from the perimeter defence, and soften defences within the city. It doesn’t appear that the offensive on the city was particularly successful, however, it shows the clear intent of Russian troops in the area. At least one column of Russian armour bypassed Mykolaiv and continued north, nearly reaching the city of Vozdnesensk. At least some vehicles in this column were destroyed and it was likely repelled back to areas under more firm Russian control. ‘
2. Advances were made in Lugansk region yesterday and today, with Russian troops advancing towards Svatove. This is likely an attempt to surround Severodonetsk from additional angles before making a push on the town. Severodonetsk’s sister city of Lysychansk was significantly targeted with rockets and artillery today as well.
3. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and its town of Enerhodar were captured by Russian forces in a pre-dawn offensive. Russian forces on the outskirts of the town had previously thrown grenades at civilians looking to blockade their entrance into the town on previous days. It appears that the town was only lightly defended by the time Russian forces attacked, though at least one armoured vehicle was destroyed in the fighting.
4. Following an operation by Ukrainian special forces yesterday on the large convoy to the north-west of Kyiv, Russian forces looked to extend the width of their salient in the region by capturing some towns to the West of Kyiv (although not too far beyond where they have previously occupied), and on the road towards Malyn. This is likely aiming to protect the flanks of their supply chain from further mechanised attacks.
5. Photos of destroyed Russian armour on the outskirts of the town of Brovary were posted on social media today. This represents a significant advance by Russian troops towards the Eastern flanks of Kyiv, however, it is unclear if this was one isolated convoy or a significant and supported push towards the city from Kozelets, where Russian forces have previously been seen. I suspect that these were isolated units and that there is no clear Russian control near Brovary, but more information is required.
6. Russian forces extended their control in Kharkiv region further South, reaching the town of Balakliya. It is unclear if this is part of an attempt to bypass Kharkiv and exert control further south towards Dnipro, or an attempt to further isolate Kharkiv from the south.
Visually confirmed equipment losses.
All of this data comes from the work of Stijn Mitzer and others and is continually updated at OryxSpioenkop please check it out there and remember that because of the high volume of losses, the accounting is not necessarily up to date and instant. These numbers are also based on visually confirmed losses and are not comprehensive.
Russia has lost 601 pieces of equipment, including 85 tanks, 176 tracked armoured vehicles and 14 aircraft.
Ukraine has lost 190 pieces of equipment, including 34 tanks, 68 tracked armoured vehicles and 5 aircraft.