Putin’s War: The Daily Ukraine Brief --- March 2nd - 24hr to 3pm

Click here for a high-resolution map.

*Disclaimer: This map and the information below is informed by reliable and verified open sources, it is meant to convey the general disposition of Russian troops in Ukraine and should not be considered confirmed nor comprehensive. Importantly, do not use this map to plan evacuation routes through Ukraine.

Events of interest:

1.    After Russian forces launched an offensive yesterday on the city of Kherson, they seemed to achieve complete control last night, and this morning footage emerged of them in key positions throughout the town. It appears that the capture of the city caused significant civilian casualties, mostly as a result of shelling, though these numbers have come from Ukrainian official sources and may be exaggerated. Although Ukrainian forces had maintained a significant garrison in the city for several days preceding yesterday and were able to repel previous Russian attacks, it seems that most troops had withdrawn from the city prior to the assault, and the majority of fighting that took place occurred between the regular Russian troops and local members of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Force. Kherson city is now the largest city under the control of Russian forces, with a population of nearly 300,000.

2.  Following their capture of Kherson city, Russian troops advanced North along several axes towards the city of Mykolaiv. The most successful push was towards the town of Bashtanka, to the North-East of Mykolaiv, which was captured last night. This morning a concerted offensive on the town took place, with Russian forces landing a small contingent of troops (reportedly four helicopters, with airborne assault troops) at the Balovne airport to the North-West of town. Accordingly Mykolaiv was attacked from the South, the North-West and the North-East. This offensive was repelled by Ukrainian troops which have been able to push Russian forces back around 30-40km from the city. It is unclear if troops landed at Balovne Airport remain in control of the base. An unbelievable claim was made of Ukrainian aircraft destroying 800 Russian vehicles near Bashtanka. It is expected that this is untrue, however, there has been visual confirmation of some vehicles being destroyed and abandoned, meaning the attack columns were likely significantly attacked from the rear as well as at the front.

3.   Russian forces continued their assault on Kharkiv, with significant rocket and artillery barrages on the town. This has not been followed yet with a significant ground assault, with Russian forces appearing to consolidate their position around the West, North and East of the town and increase the depth of the screening force protecting their main assault force. There were reports of an airborne landing at the airbase in Chuhuiv, around 25km to the South-East of Kharkiv, though these are likely erroneous and misreporting of ground troops that advanced to the town last night from the North and the East. Across the Kharkiv and Sumy regions recently, Russian forces have begun a new tactic of attempting to negotiate free passage into or through large towns along key routes. In some cases, Russians have offered to not attack the town, leave most of the existing governance in place and only use the town as a base to launch other military activities - so long as they are not attacked in the town. In other cases, Russians have been far more forceful in negotiating, threatening to level towns and villages with artillery and rockets if they are not allowed entry.

4.  Russian forces along the Cherniv region and Kyiv Oblast advanced closer to the city, though they are still not within striking range. They have been able to reach the towns of Kozelets, Bobrovytsya and Makiivka, all are around 60km from the outskirts of Kyiv. There are some reports that saboteur units have been able to set up isolated checkpoints in closer towns, such as Boryspil, but these have not been confirmed, and seem to be unlikely. Ukrainian forces were able also able to clear several supply routes in the Cherniv countryside that Russians have travelled on and used in the past. Most notably, the highway between Kipti and the Russian border at Troebortnoe was reported as clear of Russian troops and activity. These are further examples of how the Russian strategy thus far has been to push forward without sustainable support and have left their resupply routes and infrastructure vulnerable to Ukrainian troops that had been bypassed. It is unlikely that the anticipated offensive on Kyiv will take place until at least these units from the East/South-East have been able to reach the outskirts of the city, isolate it from additional directions and split defenders between the North-Western and the Eastern axes.

5.  The bombardment of Mariupol continued, as Russian forces approached closer to the town. Russian troops have now established a presence in the town of Staryi Krym, less than 5km from Mariupol’s outer suburbs, and closed off the routes into and out-of Mariupol that were open (though not safe) yesterday.

Visually confirmed equipment losses.

All of this data comes from the work of Stijn Mitzer and others and is continually updated at OryxSpioenkop please check it out there and remember that because of the high volume of losses, the accounting is not necessarily up to date and instant. These numbers are also based on visually confirmed losses and are not comprehensive.

Russia has lost 449 pieces of equipment, including 52 tanks, 130 tracked armoured vehicles and 9 aircraft.

Ukraine has lost 166 pieces of equipment, including 18 tanks, 54 tracked armoured vehicles and 5 aircraft.